Tropical Cyclone Eline and Its Unusual Penetration and Impacts over the Southern African Mainland

February-March 2000 saw devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. Due to the huge damage and loss of life, global media attention was extensive. Less well known is that one of the weather systems that contributed to these floods (ex-Tropical Cyclone Eline) tracked almost 2000 km across southern Africa toward the cool southeast Atlantic and led to substantial rainfall over arid to semiarid southern Namibia (over two standard deviations above average for these two months and the wettest summer since 1976). Less than 5% of southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones actually make landfall on the east coast of southern Africa and even fewer significantly penetrate into the interior, because of the relatively dry 1-1.5-km-high interior plateau that covers most of the region. It is argued that the precursor synoptic conditions together with large-scale circulation and SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean associated with a strengthening La Niña were highly favorable for this unusual evolution and track of Eline. A summary of the accuracy of La Réunion and Met Office forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Eline over the Indian Ocean is given. Over the mainland, almost all countries do not have any NWP capacity, and the challenges and potential solutions for improved forecasting for the region are discussed. It is argued that by keeping informed of current rainfall, vegetation, and soil moisture conditions over southern Africa, as well as evolving climate signals in the tropical oceans, local forecasters could at least be in a state of heightened alert in advance, since these factors significantly influence extreme weather event characteristics in the region

Diversity and Ranking of ENSO Impacts along the Eastern Seaboard of Subtropical Southern Africa

El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability over southern Africa during the summer half of the year. It is widely accepted that El Nino (La Nina) core summers (December–February) are typically warmer and drier (cooler and wetter) than average over the region. Although it is recognized that the ENSO impacts are nonlinear and not all events result in the expected impact, little or no work has been carried out to systematically explore the diversity and ranking of these impacts. Here, parameter-space bubble plots involving various rainfall and temperature metrics are used to study how such impacts vary over the eastern seaboard of subtropical southern Africa to determine the ENSO events with the strongest impacts, and to identify the most anomalous ENSO cases. Comparison of neutral summers experiencing the strongest droughts/floods with ENSO impacts is also performed. These metrics are designed to be applicable to the interests of farmers and other user groups. It is found that 1987/1988 (2017/2018) was the most unusual El Nino (La Nina) and neutral 1981/1982 had a severe drought, worse than occurs during most El Ninos. These unusual cases are explained in terms of regional circulation and SST anomalies. Implications of the results for seasonal forecasting and for farmers are discussed

South Atlantic response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation induced climate variability in an ocean general circulation model

[1] The response of the South Atlantic Ocean to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated by means of an ocean general circulation model (ORCA2) forced with National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses for the 1948–1999 period. Seasonal ENSO composites suggest that the ENSO-induced wind anomalies play a major role in driving upper ocean temperatures by altering the net surface heat fluxes, the meridional Ekman heat transport, and Ekman pumping. Model diagnostics indicate that the Ekman heat transport changes are in better agreement with the upper ocean temperature anomalies during the first half of the ENSO event whereas, in the latter half, the surface heat flux anomalies agree better. In general, the atmospheric forcing tends to lead to a coherent ocean response with a time lag of about one season. Subsurface temperatures evolve more slowly in response to ENSO forcing than the upper ocean. They receive time-filtered ENSO signals from mainly Ekman pumping (suction) and variations in thermocline depth that result in the poleward and equatorward margins of the subtropical gyre exhibiting temperature anomalies of the same sign but opposite to those in the central regions of the gyre

A model investigation of interannual winter rainfall variability over southwestern South Africa and associated ocean-atmosphere interaction

We have investigated the variability of inter-annual winter rainfall over the southwestern Cape region of South Africa and associated large-scale atmosphere-ocean interaction upstream over the South Atlantic using the HadAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. This model was run for the period from 1990 to 1999 using mean monthly global sea-surface temperature (SST) as surface boundary condition over the global ocean. Diagnostics of winter (May to September) model output averaged over 1990-99 suggest that the HadAM3 model represents the general circulation in the South Atlantic / African sector reasonably well for this season at least. In addition, model years with wet and dry winters over the study area tended also to be those that were observed to be anomalously wet or dry. Wet minus dry season composite fields were used to investigate the model's inter-annual variability. The composite difference fields for low- and mid-level winds, sea-level pressure, and moisture flux all indicated wet winters being associated with increased inflow from tropical South America (originating in the equatorial western Atlantic at low levels) contributing relatively moist air to the westerly flow heading towards the southwestern Cape. A stronger jet over the South Atlantic promoted the passage of storms towards the Cape. Large areas of cyclonic vorticity anomalies, enhanced eddy activity, increased thickness in the lower atmosphere and low-level convergence near and upstream of the southwestern Cape in the model composite differences all favoured increased storm systems as well as their local intensification, implying enhanced rainfall. The results presented here suggest that the model can represent the interannual variability of winter rainfall over the study region and shed light on the mechanisms potentially associated with anomalously wet winters there

The Swiss cheese model of safety incidents: are there holes in the metaphor?

BACKGROUND: Reason's Swiss cheese model has become the dominant paradigm for analysing medical errors and patient safety incidents. The aim of this study was to determine if the components of the model are understood in the same way by quality and safety professionals. METHODS: Survey of a volunteer sample of persons who claimed familiarity with the model, recruited at a conference on quality in health care, and on the internet through quality-related websites. The questionnaire proposed several interpretations of components of the Swiss cheese model: a) slice of cheese, b) hole, c) arrow, d) active error, e) how to make the system safer. Eleven interpretations were compatible with this author's interpretation of the model, 12 were not. RESULTS: Eighty five respondents stated that they were very or quite familiar with the model. They gave on average 15.3 (SD 2.3, range 10 to 21) "correct" answers out of 23 (66.5%) – significantly more than 11.5 "correct" answers that would expected by chance (p < 0.001). Respondents gave on average 2.4 "correct" answers regarding the slice of cheese (out of 4), 2.7 "correct" answers about holes (out of 5), 2.8 "correct" answers about the arrow (out of 4), 3.3 "correct" answers about the active error (out of 5), and 4.1 "correct" answers about improving safety (out of 5). CONCLUSION: The interpretations of specific features of the Swiss cheese model varied considerably among quality and safety professionals. Reaching consensus about concepts of patient safety requires further work

Return period of extreme rainfall at George, South Africa

The torrential rains of August 2006 in the southern Cape of South Africa were the most intense observed in the region. Here we use the longest-available daily rainfall series at George (from 1941 to 2006), in the vicinity of which the most destructive floods were observed, together with an extreme value model to estimate the return period of such an extreme event. According to this model, the greatest annual maximum daily rainfall of 230 mm, observed at the town on 1 August 2006, has a return period of 1222 years, whereas the second-largest observed annual maximum daily rainfall (132 mm in September 1964) has a return period of 23 years. This shows that the August 2006 extreme rainfall at George can be considered as a particularly rare event

Sensitivity of the atmospheric response to sea-surface temperature forcing in the South West Indian Ocean: A regional climate modelling study

The MM5 regional climate model has been used to investigate the sensitivity of the atmospheric response to sea-surface temperature (SST) forcing in the South West Indian Ocean. Two model runs were analysed and compared against each other; namely, one in which the model was forced by an observed warm SST anomaly during a summer season with above-average rainfall over southern Africa, and the other in which the model was forced with a smoothed representation of this anomaly but with the centre shifted closer to the east coast of South Africa. The latter experiment was motivated by correlation analyses between rainfall and SST and by previous experiments with coarser-resolution global circulation models, which suggest that the model response over the land is larger if the SST forcing is shifted closer to it. Analysis of the differences in the model response between the two runs suggests that, consistent with the global models, the MM5 response is indeed larger over southern Africa and more conducive to above-average rainfall in the experiment with the smoothed and westward shifted SST forcing. Increased evaporation over the South West Indian Ocean, local uplift and enhanced moisture flux westwards into southern Africa (as well as southwards over the land from the equatorial region) all play a role in enhancing the regional atmospheric conditions favourable for rainfall over a large area of southern Africa during the season simulate

Atmospheric and climatic drivers of tide gauge sea level variability along the east and south coast of South Africa

Atmospheric forcing and climate modes of variability on various timescales are important drivers of sea level variability. However, the influence of such drivers on sea level variability along the South African east and south coast has not yet been adequately investigated. Here, we determine the timescales of sea level variability and their relationships with various drivers. Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) was applied to seven tide gauge records and potential forcing data for this purpose. The oscillatory modes identified by the EMD were summed to obtain physically more meaningful timescales—specifically, the sub-annual (less than 18 months) and interannual (greater than two years) scales. On the sub-annual scale, sea level responds to regional zonal and meridional winds associated with mesoscale and synoptic weather disturbances. Ekman dynamics resulting from variability in sea level pressure and alongshore winds are important for the coastal sea level on this timescale. On interannual timescales, there were connections with ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), although the results are not consistent across all the tide gauge stations and are not particularly strong. In general, El Niño and positive IOD events are coincident with high coastal sea levels and vice versa, whereas there appears to be an inverse relationship between SAM phase and sea level.publishedVersio

Representation of the Mozambique channel trough and its link to southern African rainfall in CMIP6 models

The topography of Madagascar and the strength of the Mozambique Channel Trough (MCT) modulate summer rainfall over southern Africa. A strong MCT hinders the penetration of moisture bearing easterlies from the South Indian Ocean into the mainland, thus reducing rainfall there and vice versa for weak MCT summers. Given the link between the MCT and rainfall, it is important to analyse how climate models represent the trough. Here, output from 20 models within the CMIP6 ensemble of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) are analyzed to investigate how state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the MCT and its link to southern African rainfall. Overall, the ensemble mean insignificantly underestimates the observed MCT. There is a large spread among the models, with the strength of the MCT significantly correlated with the Froude number based on the mountain height over Madagascar. In models, the vorticity tendency in the MCT area is dominated by the stretching and friction terms, whereas the vertical advection, tilting and residual terms dominate in the ERA5 reanalysis. The link between MCT and rainfall in the southern African subcontinent is missing in the models. Large rainfall biases are depicted over mainland even in models with a very strong MCT. It is found that the impacts of the MCT in the models could be masked by a complex mix of processes such as the strength of the Angola low, moisture fluxes from the Indian and South Atlantic Oceans as well as overestimated convection in the Mozambique Channel area.Representation of the Mozambique channel trough and its link to southern African rainfall in CMIP6 modelspublishedVersio